Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."